2008年的次贷危机是美国的地产行业遭受了重大打击。然而,挺过了疫情之后的人们发现,商业房地产(CRE)已成为银行的压力来源。根据数据公司 Trepp 的数据,未来三年将有 2.2 万亿美元的商业房地产贷款到期。美国银行业的商业地产贷款面临着越来越严峻的风险,包括:
违约风险: 借款人可能无法偿还贷款,导致银行损失本金和利息。价值下跌风险: 商业地产的价值可能因经济衰退、市场供需变化或其他因素而下降,导致银行的抵押贷款价值低于贷款金额。
利率风险: 利率上升可能会导致借款人的还款成本增加,从而增加违约的可能性。流动性风险: 商业地产通常难以快速出售,这意味着银行在需要时可能难以收回贷款资金。近年来,由于经济增长放缓,利率上升,远程工作导致的租赁需求降低等等因素,导致了美国的商业地产贷款风险有所上升。
在当前大形势下,美国的各大银行在商业地产贷款方面的压力各有多大呢?根据UBS统计数据,截止2023底,美国各大银行的商业地产贷款的数量和所占比例如下。可以帮助大家评估每家银行的风险。
Bank and | Total Assets | Total Loans and Leases | Total Commercial Real Estate Loans | Share of Total Loans |
JPMorgan Chase & Co. | $3.9T | $1.4T | $171B | 12.60% |
Bank of America Corp | $3.2T | $1.1T | $76B | 6.90% |
Citigroup Inc. | $2.2T | $945B | $37B | 4.00% |
Wells Fargo & Company | $1.9T | $684B | $145B | 21.20% |
U.S. Bancorp | $668B | $378B | $56B | 14.90% |
PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | $557B | $319B | $49B | 15.50% |
Truist Financial Corporation | $543B | $317B | $42B | 13.30% |
Capital One Financial Corp | $471B | $316B | $49B | 15.60% |
Bank of New York Mellon Corp | $405B | $66B | $7B | 10.00% |
State Street Corporation | $284B | $35B | $3B | 8.80% |
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. | $226B | $132B | $31B | 23.10% |
First Citizens BancShares, Inc. | $214B | $133B | $20B | 14.90% |
Fifth Third Bancorp | $213B | $121B | $12B | 10.00% |
M&T Bank Corporation | $209B | $99B | $40B | 40.10% |
Keycorp | $188B | $121B | $19B | 16.00% |
Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | $187B | $44B | $14B | 33.20% |
Regions Financial Corporation | $154B | $151B | $17B | 11.50% |
Northern Trust Corporation | $146B | $117B | $6B | 4.70% |
New York Community Bancorp Inc | $111B | $86B | $49B | 57.00% |
Zions Bancorporation, N.A. | $87B | $51B | $15B | 29.30% |